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Evidence so far suggests it is far from losing its pull on the collective imagination of a continent. The Med, meanwhile, draws more than twice as many French visitors as Brittany and Normandy combined, and slipped just 0.3% from 2018 to 2019. The upward curve is not yet sustained, however, and remains relatively marginal: up sometimes 5-10%, but from a relatively low base.

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So far, French data suggests the recent series of European summer heatwaves has drawn more holidaymakers to more northerly resorts, where sun is far from certain.

And in that respect, at least, many Mediterranean resorts are, and will probably remain, unbeatable. With sun as the key requirement, they suggest, higher summer temperatures may deter some but certainly not all – and particularly if a holiday destination remains quick, easy and cheap to travel to and stay in. Mediterranean mass tourism, its infrastructures and its popular habits, they note, have been determinedly putting down economic and cultural roots for well over five decades now, catering to a vast, eager and ever-increasing public seeking one thing above all else: guaranteed sunshine. Or at least, not yet.Įxperts say that while global heating will inevitably change aspects of the fortnight on the beach in southern France, Spain, Italy or Greece, now so familiar to hundreds of millions of Europeans, the factors that determine tourist flows are altogether too complex to assume it will disappear altogether. So is it irrevocably doomed? Perhaps not. The Mediterranean holiday began, genteelly, in the Victorian era, grew dramatically after the second world war, really took off when package trips arrived and, since the 1970s, has grown exponentially to now represent 12% of the entire region’s economy (and, in some countries, more than 20%). Beaches could well prove too expensive to maintain. Access to areas of natural beauty may be restricted. Picture-postcard Mediterranean scenes will change. It is likely to get hot – sometimes very hot – the group has warned. “Even if we completely halted all greenhouse gas emissions today,” said Joël Guiot, a member of the regional climate experts group GREC-Sud, “temperatures would not fall. Photograph: Eurokinissi/REX/ShutterstockĪ 2021 report by France’s CNRS national scientific research centre warned that rising sea levels would see miles of beaches vanish, while major population centres, such as Marseille and Nice, would be forced to move inhabitants and rebuild major infrastructure, including airports. Pillars of billowing smoke and ash are blocking out the sun above Evia, Greece’s second-largest island, in 2021. When it does fall, experts predict the rain will be more likely to come in the form of violent storms leading to widespread and catastrophic flooding, such as that caused by Storm Alex, which killed 18 people in France’s Alpes-Maritimes in 2020.įinally, a significantly increased risk of wildfires, and a predicted rise in the Mediterranean’s sea level of between 35cm and – according to some forecasts – more than one metre, could have even more dramatic consequences. Most climate models agree that in most parts of the world, warmer will also mean wetter – but not in the Med, where rainfall is set to plunge by between 10% and 60%. Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves are not the only challenge. While the world is now about 1.1C warmer than it was in the 1970s, the region is already up 1.5C and on course for 3C by the end of the century (or 5C, in a worst-case scenario). The Mediterranean basin is a global heating hotspot. As global heating advances, July and August in the world’s most-visited holiday destination – pre-Covid, more than 300 million tourists a year headed to the Med, a figure some predict could rise to 500 million by the end of the decade – risk becoming unbearable.

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